General Circulation Models - Revision history

Friederike Kraemer at 15:04, 15 May 2014

2014-05-15T15:04:10Z

Friederike Kraemer: /* Criteria */

2014-05-15T15:03:26Z

‎Criteria

Friederike Kraemer at 15:00, 15 May 2014

2014-05-15T15:00:51Z

Irena Irmler at 11:20, 22 November 2013

2013-11-22T11:20:23Z

Christoph Wagener at 11:21, 12 November 2013

2013-11-12T11:21:58Z

Irena Irmler at 17:09, 31 May 2013

2013-05-31T17:09:02Z

Irena Irmler: Created page with " Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools curr..."

2013-05-31T17:06:17Z

Created page with " Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools curr..."

New page

Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (criterion 1 -- see list [http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_scen_selection.html here]). While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional climate change which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.

GCMs depict the climate using a three dimensional grid over the globe , typically having a horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans. Their resolution is thus quite coarse relative to the scale of exposure units in most impact assessments, hence only partially fulfilling criterion 3. Moreover, many physical processes, such as those related to clouds, also occur at smaller scales and cannot be properly modelled. Instead, their known properties must be averaged over the larger scale in a technique known as parameterization. This is one source of uncertainty in GCM-based simulations of future climate. Others relate to the simulation of various feedback mechanisms in models concerning, for example, water vapour and warming, clouds and radiation, ocean circulation and ice and snow albedo. For this reason, GCMs may simulate quite different responses to the same forcing, simply because of the way certain processes and feedbacks are modelled.

However, while these differences in response are usually consistent with the climate sensitivity range described in criterion 1, they are unlikely to satisfy criterion 4 concerning the uncertainty range of regional projections. Even the selection of all the available GCM experiments would not guarantee a representative range, due to other uncertainties that GCMs do not fully address, especially the range in estimates of future atmospheric composition.

@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 However, while these differences in response are usually consistent with the climate sensitivity range described in criterion 1, they are unlikely to satisfy criterion 4 concerning the uncertainty range of regional projections. Even the selection of all the available GCM experiments would not guarantee a representative range, due to other uncertainties that GCMs do not fully address, especially the range in estimates of future atmospheric composition.
 = Criteria =
@@ Line 20: / Line 21: @@
 *Criterion 1: Consistency with global projections. They should be consistent with a broad range of global warming projections based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This range is variously cited as 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate sensitivity").
 *Criterion 2: Physical plausibility. They should be physically plausible; that is, they should not violate the basic laws of physics. Hence, changes in one region should be physically consistent with those in another region and globally. In addition, the combination of changes in different variables (which are often correlated with each other) should be physically consistent.
 *Criterion 3: Applicability in impact assessments. They should describe changes in a sufficient number of variables on a spatial and temporal scale that allows for impact assessment. For example, impact models may require input data on variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and windspeed at spatial scales ranging from global to site and at temporal scales ranging from annual means to daily or hourly values.
 *Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 5: Accessibility. They should be straightforward to obtain, interpret and apply for impact assessment. Many impact assessment projects include a separate scenario development component which specifically aims to address this last point. The DDC and this guidance document are also designed to help meet this need.
 [[Category:Climate_Change]]

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 However, while these differences in response are usually consistent with the climate sensitivity range described in criterion 1, they are unlikely to satisfy criterion 4 concerning the uncertainty range of regional projections. Even the selection of all the available GCM experiments would not guarantee a representative range, due to other uncertainties that GCMs do not fully address, especially the range in estimates of future atmospheric composition.
 = Criteria =
@@ Line 18: / Line 19: @@
 Five criteria that should be met by climate scenarios if they are to be useful for impact researchers and policy makers are suggested:
 *Criterion 1: Consistency with global projections. They should be consistent with a broad range of global warming projections based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This range is variously cited as 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate sensitivity").
 *Criterion 2: Physical plausibility. They should be physically plausible; that is, they should not violate the basic laws of physics. Hence, changes in one region should be physically consistent with those in another region and globally. In addition, the combination of changes in different variables (which are often correlated with each other) should be physically consistent.
-{{#widget:YouTube|id=kK8z0qDtE2g|height=500|width=750}}
 *Criterion 3: Applicability in impact assessments. They should describe changes in a sufficient number of variables on a spatial and temporal scale that allows for impact assessment. For example, impact models may require input data on variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and windspeed at spatial scales ranging from global to site and at temporal scales ranging from annual means to daily or hourly values.
 *Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 5: Accessibility. They should be straightforward to obtain, interpret and apply for impact assessment. Many impact assessment projects include a separate scenario development component which specifically aims to address this last point. The DDC and this guidance document are also designed to help meet this need.
 [[Category:Climate_Change]]

@@ Line 18: / Line 18: @@
 Five criteria that should be met by climate scenarios if they are to be useful for impact researchers and policy makers are suggested:
 *Criterion 1: Consistency with global projections. They should be consistent with a broad range of global warming projections based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This range is variously cited as 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate sensitivity").
 *Criterion 2: Physical plausibility. They should be physically plausible; that is, they should not violate the basic laws of physics. Hence, changes in one region should be physically consistent with those in another region and globally. In addition, the combination of changes in different variables (which are often correlated with each other) should be physically consistent.
 *Criterion 3: Applicability in impact assessments. They should describe changes in a sufficient number of variables on a spatial and temporal scale that allows for impact assessment. For example, impact models may require input data on variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and windspeed at spatial scales ranging from global to site and at temporal scales ranging from annual means to daily or hourly values.
 *Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 5: Accessibility. They should be straightforward to obtain, interpret and apply for impact assessment. Many impact assessment projects include a separate scenario development component which specifically aims to address this last point. The DDC and this guidance document are also designed to help meet this need.
 [[Category:Excellent]]

@@ Line 4: / Line 4: @@
 = Use =
-While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional [[Portal:Climate_Change|climate change]] which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.
+While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional [[Portal:Climate Change|climate change]] which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.
 = Method =
@@ Line 22: / Line 22: @@
 *Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 5: Accessibility. They should be straightforward to obtain, interpret and apply for impact assessment. Many impact assessment projects include a separate scenario development component which specifically aims to address this last point. The DDC and this guidance document are also designed to help meet this need.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. <br/>
+Numerical models (General Circulation Models or GCMs), representing physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface, are the most advanced tools currently available for simulating the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.<br/>
-= Use  =
+= Use =
-While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional climate change which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.
+While simpler models have also been used to provide globally- or regionally-averaged estimates of the climate response, only GCMs, possibly in conjunction with nested regional models, have the potential to provide geographically and physically consistent estimates of regional [[Portal:Climate_Change|climate change]] which are required in impact analysis, thus fulfilling criterion 2.
 = Method =
@@ Line 17: / Line 17: @@
 Five criteria that should be met by climate scenarios if they are to be useful for impact researchers and policy makers are suggested:
 *Criterion 1: Consistency with global projections. They should be consistent with a broad range of global warming projections based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This range is variously cited as 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate sensitivity").
-*Criterion 1: Consistency with global projections. They should be consistent with a broad range of global warming projections based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This range is variously cited as 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate sensitivity").
+*Criterion 2: Physical plausibility. They should be physically plausible; that is, they should not violate the basic laws of physics. Hence, changes in one region should be physically consistent with those in another region and globally. In addition, the combination of changes in different variables (which are often correlated with each other) should be physically consistent.
-*Criterion 2: Physical plausibility. They should be physically plausible; that is, they should not violate the basic laws of physics. Hence, changes in one region should be physically consistent with those in another region and globally. In addition, the combination of changes in different variables (which are often correlated with each other) should be physically consistent.
+*Criterion 3: Applicability in impact assessments. They should describe changes in a sufficient number of variables on a spatial and temporal scale that allows for impact assessment. For example, impact models may require input data on variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and windspeed at spatial scales ranging from global to site and at temporal scales ranging from annual means to daily or hourly values.
-*Criterion 3: Applicability in impact assessments. They should describe changes in a sufficient number of variables on a spatial and temporal scale that allows for impact assessment. For example, impact models may require input data on variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and windspeed at spatial scales ranging from global to site and at temporal scales ranging from annual means to daily or hourly values.
+*Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 4: Representative. They should be representative of the potential range of future regional climate change. Only in this way can a realistic range of possible impacts be estimated.
 *Criterion 5: Accessibility. They should be straightforward to obtain, interpret and apply for impact assessment. Many impact assessment projects include a separate scenario development component which specifically aims to address this last point. The DDC and this guidance document are also designed to help meet this need.