Changes in climate are already occurring in most agricultural regions of the world, and most of these changes have negative effects on established patterns of agriculture. Moreover, even if net reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began tomorrow, past emissions will cause continuing changes in the climatic environment of agriculture over the foreseeable future. Continued increases in the rate of GHG, which is a more likely scenario, will exacerbate these changes and make their impacts more severe.
Background
The changing global climate affects agriculture through a number of pathways. These include changes in precipitation levels and intensities, inundation of coastal agricultural lands, reductions in groundwater recharge, increased incidence of flooding and droughts, and the effects of higher temperatures themselves on growing crops. The impacts of these effects vary from region to region, but many of the poorest regions of the world are among those that will bear their brunt.
A more extensive treatment of these issues is included in Water and Adaptation to Climate Change.
Roles and responsibilities
Adaptive responses are already occurring as a result of individual actions by farmers, and water suppliers acting independently in response to changing conditions. These include farmers’ decisions on crops to plant, pesticide use, and timing of planting and harvest; and water suppliers’ decisions on scheduling of water deliveries and the quantity of those deliveries.
Other adaptive responses have resulted from government initiatives and have been carried out either directly by government agencies or by universities and other organizations under contract. In general, the role of public sector agencies includes (a) providing public goods such as knowledge, forecasts, and infrastructure; (b) providing quasi-private goods and services, such as irrigation infrastructure and new seed varieties; and (c) providing livelihood assistance through retraining or job creation credits to workers displaced from agriculture, and (d) creating a framework of incentives and sanctions that will guide individual choices that impact adaptation.
Within the public sector, allocation of responsibilities for adaptive action among public agencies is largely a function of the structure and political economy of those government units and varies widely from country to country. Because of the pervasiveness of climate change impacts, a ministry or department with a broad mandate, such as planning or finance, is generally an appropriate choice to coordinate adaptation interventions (Sperling, c. 2002).
International organizations also have a role to play in aiding adaptive action, particularly in lower-income countries. Such organizations can provide good and services such as knowledge development and dissemination, information exchange, and awareness raising that possess economies of scale or that require an international footprint to be effective. They can also serve to build consensus on the need for action and provide legitimacy and support for reformers at the national level.
Indicative priorities
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Broad Scale Drivers of Adaptive Capacity
In addition to specific actions aimed at adapting to climate change impacts, there are broad cross-cutting drivers that can reduce sensitivity to GCC exposure and enhance adaptive capacity across the board. These should receive priority attention as powerful generic drivers of adaptation and include:
- Controlling population growth
- Improving education
- Improving performance of public agencies
- Creating non-agricultural employment
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